Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 19.858612 23.882301 28.326212 33.572970 39.571826 46.189883 54.015587
2025-06-08 13.180472 18.208375 24.366116 32.350525 42.308483 54.192921 69.311763
2025-06-15 10.320108 15.863517 23.200381 33.377967 46.859594 63.819353 86.444096
2025-06-22 7.807504 13.271322 21.038838 32.481951 48.451226 69.452445 98.587541
2025-06-29 6.543775 12.121967 20.541600 33.567956 52.514956 78.306999 115.174431
2025-07-06 4.900758 10.006884 18.243862 31.679977 52.095936 80.898929 123.344794
2025-07-13 4.233598 9.346802 18.038096 32.802476 55.985464 89.567149 140.166650
2025-07-20 3.650193 8.702025 17.734218 33.678212 59.489323 97.793960 156.683876
2025-07-27 3.221441 8.252808 17.677284 34.900736 63.549952 106.979437 174.927273
2025-08-03 2.811765 7.748942 17.437156 35.754413 67.031565 115.415834 192.379115
2025-08-10 2.312227 6.932766 16.490557 35.256788 68.232707 120.376340 204.804684
2025-08-17 1.872873 6.137678 15.453969 34.459044 68.822460 124.346078 215.816384
2025-08-24 1.524839 5.504442 14.717067 34.274108 70.685721 130.818440 231.615661
2025-08-31 1.156524 4.696390 13.475465 32.992364 70.560395 134.145124 242.806494
2025-09-07 1.002632 4.444406 13.418452 34.034095 74.652770 144.577554 265.664895
2025-09-14 0.773053 3.862686 12.474654 33.123850 75.045665 148.787760 278.633489
2025-09-21 0.675713 3.685749 12.485606 34.226969 79.287344 159.726155 302.973078
2025-09-28 0.482761 3.056524 11.197672 32.309157 77.525878 160.136260 309.869026
2025-10-05 0.424303 2.937630 11.261080 33.449434 81.858239 171.447635 335.419045
2025-10-12 0.366625 2.792694 11.221870 34.338955 85.730075 182.084172 360.169658
2025-10-19 0.325032 2.702712 11.327123 35.580605 90.391286 194.324949 388.050156
2025-10-26 0.280619 2.572361 11.283322 36.447558 94.316294 205.363339 414.190480
2025-11-02 0.218680 2.297864 10.720563 35.942202 95.293787 210.977769 431.052667